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Mortgage rates are expected to stay relatively stable through 2026, hovering around 6.3 to 6.4 percent, and falling oil prices could help ease them a little further. For Las Vegas buyers and sellers, that means the wild swings of recent years look to be settling down, and the second half of 2026 is shaping up to be a more active market. Here is what the latest forecasts say and what it means for you.
Will mortgage rates go down in 2026?
Probably not by a lot, but the outlook is stable and slightly softer. The major forecasters, Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association, and Wells Fargo, all expect the 30-year fixed rate to stay in the low-to-mid 6 percent range through the end of 2026 and into 2027. Averaging the three, rates are projected near 6.4 percent for the rest of 2026 and easing toward about 6.3 percent by mid-2027. In plain terms: do not expect a dramatic drop, but do not expect a spike either.
Here is what the three major forecasts show for the 30-year fixed rate:
- Q3 2026: about 6.42 percent on average
- Q4 2026: about 6.40 percent on average
- Q1 2027: about 6.40 percent on average
- Q2 2027: about 6.33 percent on average
Why might mortgage rates ease from here?
One word: oil. Oil prices have a real influence on mortgage rates because they shape inflation expectations, and inflation drives the bond market that mortgage rates are set from. When oil prices fall, inflation expectations tend to cool, and that can pull mortgage rates down even when the Federal Reserve leaves its benchmark rate unchanged.
As Rich Martin, SVP of Retail Lending at Curinos, put it: “Oil matters, particularly since it drives inflation expectations and thus influences the bond market, from which mortgage rates are set.” Oil prices have come down recently, and while lower oil should help ease inflation and rates over time, that relief tends to arrive gradually rather than overnight.
Is there a track record for this?
Yes. History shows mortgage rates have reacted to oil shocks before. In periods like 1999 to 2000, 2005 to 2006, and 2018 to 2019, movements in oil prices lined up with movements in the 30-year fixed rate. It is not a perfect one-to-one relationship, but the connection between oil, inflation, and rates is well established. That is why a sustained drop in oil is worth watching if you are hoping for a little rate relief.
What this means if you are buying a home in Las Vegas
If you have been waiting on the sidelines for rates to crash before buying, the forecasts suggest that big drop may not be coming soon. Rates are expected to stay in the low-to-mid 6 percent range, so trying to time the perfect rate can mean missing out on the right home, and paying more as prices rise. The smarter play for most buyers is the old saying: marry the house, date the rate. Buy the home that fits your life now, and refinance later if rates fall.
There is another reason not to wait. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun expects home sales to be “modestly better in the second half of 2026.” More buyers coming off the sidelines means more competition, so getting in before the market heats up can work in your favor. If you are thinking about buying, start by getting matched with the right areas and homes through our buyer questionnaire.
What this means if you are selling a home in Las Vegas
Stable rates are good news for sellers. When rates settle down, buyers regain confidence and get off the fence, and forecasts point to more home sales in the back half of 2026. That is a healthier pool of buyers for your listing. The key, as always, is pricing right from day one so you capture that demand instead of sitting on the market. See our full guide to selling a home in Las Vegas, and get a free estimate of your home’s value with our home valuation tool.
The bottom line
Mortgage rates are expected to stay relatively stable around 6.3 to 6.4 percent through 2026, with a chance of easing if oil prices and inflation keep cooling. Home sales are projected to improve in the second half of the year. Waiting for a dramatic rate drop is a gamble that could cost you the right home or a strong window to sell. The better move is to make your decision based on your life and your numbers, not a rate prediction.
Want to talk through what today’s rates mean for your specific plans in Las Vegas, Summerlin, or Henderson? Schedule a quick call with us and we will map out your options, buying or selling.
The Arbeli Team, Signature Real Estate Group. Amy Arbeli and Tzahi Arbeli. Call or text (702) 210-8725. Rate figures reflect published forecasts as of mid-2026 and will change over time. This is general market information, not financial or lending advice. For a rate quote and pre-approval, talk with a licensed mortgage professional. Forecast sources: Fannie Mae, Mortgage Bankers Association, Wells Fargo, Freddie Mac, EIA, and NAR.
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